Free Market or Socialist PLCB - who makes jobs?

The Legislature continues to ignore the drag the PLCB puts on the economy. Every place that has fully privatized has tripled employment in the industry. A side benefit is that a free market allows entrepreneurs to open businesses that a controlled market, by its very nature, limits. Since over a third of the PLCB is already part-time the claim of losing 5,000 "family sustaining" jobs from privatization is blatantly false.

Just one example of that limitation in jobs is craft distilleries. In 2012, the first year that limited distillery licenses were allowed — years behind other states — Pennsylvania had four. Now, four years later, the state has about 50. In contrast, Washington State — with about half the population — has 86 (as of mid-July). Since privatization of the state liquor monopoly in 2012, Washington has added 51 distilleries, added jobs, added tax base. Slow old Pennsylvania has added 50 in the same amount of time — with twice the market, and our proximity to big markets in New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Maryland — an increase that should be well over 100, based on population ratios.

So what is holding things up? The PLCB's friends in the Legislature and the Almighty Liquor Code, of course. How many jobs, how much investment and taxes has the state lost because of the PLCB? Far more than the heavy hand has allowed in. What are we afraid of? Success? Money? Tax revenue?

While ACT 39 has added a few jobs (mostly in the PLCB hiring consultants to figure out how to implement it), there hasn't been the boon in employment full privatization would bring. No new warehouse jobs (union jobs!) that would be created by the formation of new distributors, because the state still controls wholesale. No new delivery jobs (more union jobs!) trucking wine and spirits to new stores, because there are no new stores, and besides, for the most part the PLCB doesn't deliver anyway. No new sales jobs because there still aren't any new stores. Poorer service because while private stores depend on good service for return customers, the state stores know you can't go anywhere else. Less selection because the PLCBureaucrats in Harrisburg are selecting the shelf stock for every single store for the entire state, instead of customer requests and demand, new product promotion, and American-style competition like how EVERYTHING ELSE  is sold in retail.

While the PLCB is a jobs program, it isn't a jobs program that benefits the citizens overall, just the lucky winners at the State Stores and warehouses. It benefits them by denying and disrupting the normal opportunity and jobs found in free and open markets.

If the Pennsylvania State Store System were really all that good...Well, think about it. 

• They wouldn't be afraid of competition. 
• Other places would be trying to emulate our system. What a ridiculous concept! 
• The citizens wouldn't want change. They do.
• Pricing would reflect buying power. Flexible pricing makes sure it doesn't.
• Qualified people with industry experience would be making business decisions, not political hacks. 
• People would come into Pennsylvania to buy; instead the state has the largest alcohol sales border bleed in the country.

We aren't safer, we aren't better served, and even with McIlhinney's four-bottle folly, we aren't satisfied. The only way to really satisfy the consumer is with a free market, not a closed system.

PRIVATIZE.

We're better off privatized

After four years, I think it is safe to say that the liquor market in Washington state has settled down. Like everything else that is sold, big stores offer more and small stores offer less. People will pay more for convenience and pay less when buying quantity. Not every store is the same, which is a big change from the old state stores; just as it will be here.

How's Washington doing? Since the unions always make this about money, let's look at that. According to The Herald Business Journal total sales volume has increased 21%, and that doesn't count the couple of percent increase in border bleed. Border bleed isn't a product of privatization, Washington has always had it. It's no surprise, they've had higher taxes, and therefore higher prices then the adjoining states of Idaho and Oregon for decades. However, it isn't like the border bleed that Pennsylvania has; the population is smaller and there are no major population centers near the borders. An entire year of Washington border bleed is about a month's worth of what Pennsylvania loses.

How do we know this?  The states bordering Washington tell us that their sales have increased 7% after Washington privatized (and the booze taxes were jacked). For Idaho, that would be about $11.7 million and for Oregon about $34.8 million, or a total of $46.5 million per year being lost out of state after privatization.

In contrast, PA has at the very least $230 million in border bleed in just eight counties, and that was five years ago according to the PLCB itself.  Extrapolating for the entire state using the Pennsylvania Food Merchants Association or the Wine and Spirits Wholesalers of America studies puts it closer to $500 million, or almost eleven times Washington's border bleed.

Sounds pretty bad, right? Let's hope that our politicians get it right and don't raise taxes when the state stores are privatized. Will convenience go up? No doubt. Will selection increase? Overall, yes, though not everywhere; the State Stores won't be charging Philly to have a full wine selection in Potter County. Will border bleed decrease? Certainly: if you make a product easier to buy locally, people will buy more locally. Look at Washington: even though there were 27% in added 'fees,' sales still increased 21%. If PA doesn't raise taxes that number will increase, and even a few percent more as border bleed decreases.

What do we need to replace financially? $110 million, give or take, which includes State Police funding, Drug and Alcohol education funding, and the average amount turned into the general fund for the past 5 years. Last year the PLCB collected $334.4 million in Johnstown flood tax and $130.2 million in sales tax. A total of  $464.6 million. If sales go up 25% then taxes collected go up 25% too and 25% of $464.6 million is $116.15 million. Done! The PLCB "profit" is replaced!  But there is more.

Every place that has fully privatized has tripled employment in the industry. New owners will be paying business taxes the PLCB doesn't pay, they will be paying license fees the PLCB doesn't pay, and they won't be looking to the taxpayer to address any future shortfall in pension and medical. You won't have as much bureaucracy to pay for, there won't be some unqualified person deciding what the entire state is allowed to buy, there won't be the graft and corruption of state employees, there won't be people who thought kiosks were a good idea, there won't be state stores trying to hide behind 4 different names and there won't be the PLCB as we know it now. Certainly a good thing.

What there will be is NORMAL. Or at least far closer to normal than what we have currently and normal is good. Just ask the majority of the population how much better free enterprise is over state monopoly.

Wanna Talk Washington? Fine, Let's Talk Washington

The latest claim by some union members and supporters is that Washington state is making less money this year than when they had a state run system, and the implication is that it's because they privatized. The truth is that they are about $46 million ahead of the last year of state-run stores.  Even though I explained and pointed out where to find all the numbers in "Why Johnny can't read or do math Part 3", they seem to still have difficulty with addition.

One more time, then: the Washington State Department of Revenue collects liquor taxes. The total for Fiscal Year 2014 was $267,374,563. The Washington State Liquor Control Board collects spirit fees, license fees and beer and wine taxes. That was $227,320,000 for Fiscal year 2014. That means the total state booze-related revenue collected in FY 2014 was $494,7 million. In the last year of state-run liquor stores (FY2012), the total returned was $448.7 million (including store "profit") which also included the one-time $31 million income from the sale of the old state stores and was still $46 million less than this year.

Now, here's the crucial part that brings all the crowing about the State Store System's "record sales" into perspective. Compare what the PLCB, with control of both wine and liquor and twice the population and over twice the total sales of Washington State, did over that same period. They didn't even come close to  increasing the contribution to the state by that amount. Their increase was only $33 million, and yes, that includes the so-called "profit" and taxes, too. Washington does not charge regular state sales taxes on liquor, but includes a Spirit Sales Tax in the price, the same way PA includes the Johnstown Flood Tax in the retail price. I did include PA sales tax in the above comparison; it's revenue from booze sales. But still...they couldn't match the increase Washington saw when it privatized (and remember; Washington only privatized liquor!).

Freedom of choice, free enterprise, free interstate commerce...those are things the country was founded on, and these are the things denied the citizens of Pennsylvania by the State Store System. Washington State now has greater selection, more convenience, more taxes collected, and lower DUI fatalities. Looks to me like Washington is winning. We can be winners too. Privatize.

Privatization Is Modernization.

Let's Kill Another Privatization Myth III

Another favorite clerk message is that privatization would kill off the local or craft brewery, winery, or distillery. Not a lot of data out there on this point since the craft movement really didn't exist 25 years ago when Iowa privatized or 20 years ago when Alberta privatized, but there is one current example: Washington State.

How did the craft movement do in Washington from before privatization to after privatization?

In FY 2011, before privatization there were:

• 739 Winery licenses
• 151 Brewery licenses
• 35 Craft Distillery licenses

In FY 2013, the first year after privatization:

• Winery licenses increased 7.4% to 794
• Brewery licenses increased 47% to 223
• Craft Distillery licenses increased a whopping 83% in just two years to 64.
• While not producers, but indicative of the increased selection available to Washingtonians, the Importers and Distributors licenses increased an incredible 129%.

While it may be true that some in-state sales declined (hard to say since all the data isn't available), that doesn't seem to have stopped the craft movement. One thing you can say about the free market is that people don't start businesses to lose money; they aren't the PLCB, after all, with millions to waste on signs and kiosks and things. If they're starting businesses, they're pretty sure they can sell product.

Why can't Johnny read or do math — Part 3

If you remember in Part 2 of this saga, one anonymous poster — we’ll call him Business Rep 23 — was not able to figure out how Washington State collected more money after privatization. He couldn’t add the numbers from the Washington State Department of Revenue and Washington State LCB, and he said that the money from the old state stores wasn’t included.  If you look at the WSLCB Annual Reports, none of them list “Store Profit.”  It’s just part of their income after expenses and since they turn over everything else to the State or Local governments, they seem to not feel the need to do reporting the PA way.

Let’s see what the real numbers were in Washington, and how they compared pre and post-privatization. The last annual report before privatization was for FY 2012, which went from June 1, 2011 to May 31, 2012. This would include the big run on liquor that happened before privatization took effect on June 1, 2012 and the auction sales of the old state stores.

Total liquor sales were $900.47 million or about 42% of what PA does (it bears repeating: Washington only privatized liquor sales; they already had private wine sales). Washington State LCB does collect the beer and wine taxes, and some tobacco taxes too, but those obviously weren’t affected by privatization. If you do include all of that, the total is $448.7 million returned to the state. That number is what Business Rep 23 and his cohorts like to use when comparing Washington’s old liquor income to Washington’s new liquor income.  The key number here would be $448.7 million turned into the state for everything, including any profit made in the old state stores.

Now let’s look at the 2013 Annual Report, the first one after privatization.  There is no income from

Gross Liquor Sales any longer, but the License Fees have gone up from $33.91 million to $257.6 million and that the total returned by the WSLCB  to the State is now $318.32 million.  (License Fees are the actual cost of licenses, plus the 17% Retail License fee and the 10% Wholesale License fee that were added as part of the privatization bill.)

AHA! you say, that’s $130 million less than the year before, Business Rep 23 was right!  Er, well, no, he isn’t.  When Washington State was the only source to buy liquor, they collected all the state liquor taxes: the Spirits Sales Tax and the “Spirits Liter Tax.” But now that Washington State has a private system, those tax collections are now part of the Department of Revenue, and not the WSLCB. (Imagine: the Department of Revenue collects the taxes, instead of some dinky enforcement bureau. Makes sense, right?)

To get the total tax numbers, you have to look at the spreadsheet the Department of Revenue so kindly keeps updated here.  Looking at the Summary FY2013 tab and adding the monthly tax collections, you see approximately $228.6 million was collected from consumer sales and $37.3 million was collected from licensees through distributor sales, a total of $265.9 million.

This gives Washington State approximately $318 million from the WSLCB, and $266 million from taxes, for a grand total of $584 million in liquor/booze revenue.  Even Business Rep 23 has to admit that $584 million is more than $448 million. Okay, he doesn’t have to, and I’m sure he will make a bunch of statements trying to tear that fact down without any proof, but…come on. $584 million is at least 23% more than the $448 million that was collected the year before, just like I said in part 2.

So to sum it all up:

The WSLCB Beer and Wine taxes, tobacco seizures, other income, and all liquor revenue including store “profit” collected in FY2012 before privatization resulted in a total of $448.7 million being returned to the state, while in FY 2013, the first year after privatization, it was $584 million.

The moral of the story?  

Don’t believe Business Rep 23 or anybody else unless they have the facts to back up their statements.

Washington State is not equal to PA

For some time we've been told (mostly by UFCW last-ditchers) that Washington State's liquor income is close to Pennsylvania’s liquor income, and that when the Evergreen State privatized their liquor monopoly, they only got a small amount -- $181 million -- for their retail and wholesale systems together.

Well...kind of.

Take a look at this, from the Washington State Department of Revenue. This shows how much liquor tax was collected in 2013. It is more than PA collects, but since their tax rate is 5 times ours, that stands to reason. But the rate of taxation really doesn’t have anything to do with the worth of the system to a purchaser, except to drive it down. Worth is determined by demand and availability; so with about half our population, high taxes which decrease total sales, an already private wine market, and the 8th highest beer taxation (even after it was reduced - see below), Washington’s system was inherently worth less than Pennsylvania’s in total and per unit.

 Pennsylvania is a much bigger market with more outlets even after closing 20% of them over the last 40 years (while Washington increased their number of stores over the same time period) and controls both wine and liquor. As such, it is worth more since the volumes are higher and greater economies of scale are present, along with a high demand and somewhat reasonable taxation on liquor, albeit higher taxation on wine. As a wholesaler, Pennsylvania's monopoly rights are worth more than just the 4 times the indicated value (double the liquor and all the wine). Of course, nobody knows exactly what anything will sell for until it does in an auction situation, and that could change up or down daily. That said, a bigger fish like the Commonwealth is worth more than two smaller fish...and certainly more than one small fish, like Washington.

Some points to consider.
Washington – Population 6.9 million
Pennsylvania – Population 12.8 million

Washington $35.22 per gallon alcohol tax.
Pennsylvania $7.22 per gallon alcohol tax.

Washington Liquor taxes collected (2013) – ~$266 million in liquor taxes (after the 27% increase in fees)
Pennsylvania Liquor taxes collected (2013) – ~$183 million as the liquor share of the Johnstown Flood Tax.

Washington – 40 million units sold (liquor only).
Pennsylvania – 140 million units sold (liquor and wine).

Washington – Reduced beer tax from $23.58 a barrel to $8.08 a barrel (2013) to help in-state brewers.
Pennsylvania – Did nothing to help brewers (probably because our beer tax rate is already one of the lowest, at $2.48 a barrel).

Washington Border Bleed – The total increase for the year was about 10 days worth of PA border bleed.
Pennsylvania Border Bleed – The largest liquor border bleed in the country.

Washington – Legislature respected will of the people to privatize liquor sales.
Pennsylvania – Legislature consistently rejects will of the people to fully privatize (so far).

While we are not Washington, we can do what they did; and with the hindsight they have enabled, do a much better job of it. More jobs, more revenue, more convenience, more selection, less government and freedom of choice can and should be ours.

Privatization IS Modernization. Accept nothing less.

Why can't Johnny read or do math?

For those of us following such things there has been a trend by some union representatives and clerks to spin or play down the amount of drinkers and thus making our voice seem more like a minority and not as important as those who think they are keeping utter chaos and ruination at bay. 

Specifically, they like to use the 13% number as those who drink once a week. However, as with most things math the clerks and the union have their own way of doing things.  What they seem to fail to realize is that the total is cumulative – i.e. you have to add the everyday, the few times a week and the about once a week numbers to see the TOTAL amount of people who drink at least once a week. This number ranges from 30 to 35% depending what time period you look at.   

In fact, Gallup has shown time and time again that 66% of the entire adult population drink some amount of alcohol.  As they reported in August this year “Thirty-five percent report having had a drink in the last 24 hours and another 29% in the past week.” This works out to 64% of drinkers which are about 66% of the population which comes out to over 42% of the total population (.64*.66 = .4224).  This is higher than what is normally reported because of the holiday included in the survey period which means some special occasion drinkers are added in that normally wouldn’t be.

We 2/3rds of Americans who choose to drink are the majority that the state store system wants to control.  They tell us what, they tell us when and they tell us where – the very antitheses of the freedom an open market brings to the citizens.  Taxation, regulation and enforcement are the role of government, not retail sales. The citizens and the state will be far better off once the aberration of the current state store system is corrected. Every state or province that has privatized some or all of their alcohol system has seen an increase in employment in the industry.  It tripled in Washington and Alberta. Increased in Ohio, Iowa, Maine and West Virginia too.

We are not inventing the wheel again.  Take the best of that the majority of the states do, regulate and enforce what they have problems with and come up with the best system.  That is real modernization not putting lipstick on the state store pig with new names or wicker baskets.

Privatization IS Modernization – Accept nothing less.

Provided for historical data (Gallup)

Every day A few times a week About once a week Less than once a week Only on special occasions Never No opinion % % % % % % % 2007 Nov 11-14 7 13 10 9 29 33 * 2006 Nov 9-12 10 13 11 9 27 30 * 2005 Nov 7-10 5 14 11 10 29 31 * 2004 Nov 7-10 7 13 13 10 25 32 * 2003 Nov 3-5 7 16 13 12 25 27 * 2001 Nov 8-11 7 12 13 14 24 30 * * Less than 0.5%