Thursday, July 7, 2016

Another year, another set of predictions

Last year was a pretty good year for PLCB prognostication. I hit most of my predictions. Just shows that if you have no faith in the State Store System, they won't let you down. So what, if anything, has changed this year? 

1. The normal amount of squawking about "record sales and profits" when that isn't going to happen. Collecting taxes is not making a profit even in PLCB Bizarro business world. Of course with a police enforced monopoly, rising prices, and more citizens why wouldn't there be record sales?  A private system would generate even more sales.

2. "Record amounts of taxes collected" will be big in PLCB world, but again, with a police enforced monopoly, rising prices and more citizens why wouldn't there be?

3. I predict that "Net Operating Income" will decrease for the third year in a row, even with "record sales"

4. Prediction: "Store, Warehouse, and Transportation Costs" have gone up for the last few years albeit only 3% last year but I think it will be 5% this year.

5. "Administrative, Alcohol Education, and Support Costs went up over 29% last year and 9% the year before. They will go up again by 8-10% this year.

6. The PLCB finished out last year almost $240,000,000 in the hole. I don't think that is going to change too much so I'll say a slight increase in that number for this fiscal year.

7. Not really a prediction but an observation.  PLCB "profit" return to the General Fund will be less than it was in FY2008 - which has been true for every year since then. Just where does all that record sales money go?

So there you have it. Will we have to wait for 122 days for a computerized accounting system to spit out unverified numbers like last year? Or will the PLCB figure out what button to push before then?  Will I be eating crow or steak?  I'm getting sorta used to steak.

How deep is the hole this year?

Today is day 7 of the countdown.

No comments: