A great place to work?

Among the lies, & fallacies, disingenuous statements and statistics that appear out of thin air over at the old PLCB fudge factory, we hear how the PLCB is a great place to work! Jinkies! Cool!

But what do the numbers say? According to the 2019 annual report (on page 61) the average age of a store clerk is 44 years old. Not exactly attracting younger workers. And when they do get workers, 56% of them are part time. I don't think those are the "Family Sustaining Jobs" that are so often mentioned. Out of that 56%, over half of them quit every year for a turnover rate of 53.1%. Even if you somehow manage to get one of the 2,453 full time filled positions, there is a 49.3 % turn over rate there too. Now factor in this: 29% of store workers change location every year.

Can you say "turn and churn"? Is it burnout, or do they just get tired of the bullshit? If the PLCB isn't that good at retaining employees, just how good they are to work for?

Turn it on its head: is this mismanaged workforce of any benefit to the agency (and thus, to the commonwealth). The average sales per employee for 2017 across this kind of industry was $689,000 per each full time equivalent. The PLCB can force a "part time" employee to work 34 hours a week if they want to, so that makes figuring out the total hours the part time workforce puts in a bit difficult. I'll just go with 25 hours a week for part time workers and 15 hours for seasonal workers.

With 3,190 full time sales and admin employees putting in 37.5 hours per week times 52 weeks, that's a total of 6,320,125 hours. Add to that 25 hours times 1,773 workers times 52 weeks equals 2,304,900 hours plus 383 seasonal workers at 15 hours each, but only 13 weeks of work equals 74,490 for a grand total of  8,719,515 hours. Take that and divide it by 37.5*52 (1,950) and you get roughly 4,471 full time equivalent employees.

Now that we have the number of full-time equivalents, we can then multiply that by $689,000 for each employee and come up with $3,080,519,000 as what average sales should be. But the PLCB only did $2,126,927,971 in sales or UNDERPERFORMED the average by just about 45%. In simple terms, having the PLCB do things is costing the state about $950 Million in lost taxable sales based on average sales. Now that is the average, there could be significant differences for liquor stores. But looking at Total Wine, they are only about 10% below that average, so it pretty much confirms the PLCB is a bloated, poorly managed organization,

It gets worse. All the PLCB numbers were taken from the number of working employees as of June 2019. However, the amount that are authorized is greater.  If the PLCB were fully staffed, they would be 65% BELOW average in sales per employee. Filling over 1000 current vacancies might cause the PLCB to not be able to meet the amount of payout revenues requested by the administration.

That of course, would require the PLCB to variably screw the citizens that much harder just to keep them afloat. In that scenario, it is better for them to have less people on the sales floor. What a way to run a business!

PLCB workers, staff, administrators, board members, and your supporters in the Legislature: tell me why we need this bloated, under performing jobs program?

We are not safer, we are not better served and we are not satisfied. Privatize.

Revisiting some numbers that you won't see the PLCB publish

I first posted Numbers, Numbers, Numbers (some State Store numbers that are always missing in the PLCB's annual report) three years ago. It might be good to have a second look to see if there was any improvement at the PLCB.  The original findings are (in parentheses).

1) The average amount of non-tax revenue returned to the state per unit (single bottle or box) of wine or liquor - $1.25 (73 cents) Beware: this is based on the so-called "profit" turned in to the General Fund, which has little to do with actual profit. It's simply the amount asked for by the administration. We know that reserves were dipped into for 2018, so this number is skewed even more than it normally would be.

2) Not counting the actual cost of the item, what the PLCB spends to put one item on the shelf - $2.91 ($3.06)

3) What PA spends to put an item on the shelf, including the average cost of the item - $10.78 ($11.40)

4) What it costs with taxes included to put one average item on the shelf - $14.48 ($15.21)
Note: While it looks like items 2,3, and 4 are an improvement...this is due to the huge numbers around just 3 items: Fireball 50 ml (+750,000 unitls) and Tito's 50 ml (+175,000 units) and Tito's liter (+380,000 units). When you increase mini sales by over 900,000 units, it skews the average cost and tax per unit. 
  
5) Average real estate rental cost per store (2018) - $1663 a week ($1432)

6) Industry average profit margin 8.1%; PLCB 2018 profit margin 8.9% (6%) The majority of this increase is due to the auction of the "Zombie" liquor licenses, not because of actual retail sales.

7) PLCB effective markup, not counting any taxes - 46.7% (45.36%)
This is because of variable pricing. Now that almost all items fall under that, expect this to rise even more next year.

8) State and federal government workers' average benefits as percentage of salary - 36.4%.
PLCB benefits as percentage of salary - 85-104% (as stated by Board members during the Appropriations hearings in the Senate).

9) Percent of sales actually checked for proof of age - Unknown. 
The PLCB did not include any information about carding in this year's summary. It is still probably under 2% as it has been in years past.

10) Retail Wine Specialists as a percentage of PLCB workers: 2.2%  (1.7%) - Only a gain of 20 in three years. Retail Wine Specialist as a percentage of Total Wine store employees - ~20%


Sources

1. - $185M returned to General Fund plus $30.5M for BLCE plus $5.5M for Alcohol Awareness programs plus $2.5M for Drug & Alcohol programs divided by 178.9 million unit sales. We were told "Modernization" will increase profits by $180M. Is anyone surprised that we're not seeing anything close to that? (Keep in mind that the $185 million is a very flexible number, mostly representing what the Legislature requires from the PLCB, whether it's actually "profit" or not.)
2. - Operating expenses (not counting the cost of wine and spirits) of $520M, divided by units sold. The lower this number, the more efficient the organization is.
3. - Operating Expenses plus Cost Of Goods Sold (COGS) = $1.928B divided by units sold 178.9M.
4. - Gross sales ($2.59B) divided by total units sold. $3.47 in tax for every bottle or box sold is the average of sales and Johnstown Flood Tax; more expensive bottles can be much more.
5. - Rental expense for all operating leases $52.2M divided by 604 stores. Of course, this cost will increase as the PLCB tries to move into higher traffic areas.
6. - IBISWorld, May 2013, Operating Income divided by Sales Net of Taxes. With increased pension costs, workers comp, salary, and benefits increasing, this won't improve any time soon.
7. - COGS divided by gross profit. This fat markup of 46.7% still isn't going to be enough to cover increasing operating costs as the PLCB had to go into reserves again to pay the $185M requested by Gov. Wolf
8. - US Dept Of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016 PA Senate Appropriations hearing.
9. - No information about carding is mentioned in this year's documents. You have slightly better than 98% chance of not being carded (compared to a 0.0% chance at private stores like Wegmans), and since the State Stores are never checked by police for underage compliance...how effective are they?
10. - 4999 (2/15/2019) divided by 111 (www.pennwatch) There appear to be no Spirits Specialists in the PLCB.
11. - Over 5000 employees and 800+ Wine Specialists (Total Wine wiki ). The PLCB has ONE retail wine specialist for every 5.4 stores, Total has SIX at each store.

At the PLCB, ALL money is TAX money

Well, the good 'ol PLCB got their annual report out, and proudly lists the following as "Contributions to state and local governments" totaling $749.6 million for last fiscal year:

• $371.5 million in liquor tax
• $146 million in state sales tax
• $185.1 million in cash transfers

Of course, the first number is the Johnstown Flood Tax, which was raised twice since the flood in question, the second time about 30 years after the flood. Still, at least they call it a tax. Same with sales tax. That's what passes for honesty in Harrisburg.

It is the last one that the whole PLCB rides on, the reason they still exist: $185 million in "cash transfers," or what they like to call "profit." They don't want to call it tax revenue, but that is exactly what it is, a tax. Webster's defines a tax as: A charge usually of money imposed by authority on persons or property for public purposes. Don't like that one?  This is even more specific: A compulsory contribution to state revenue, levied by the government.

When a government entity -- the PLCB -- is levying a compulsory charge -- which is anything above break-even on their monopoly retail operations -- to increase revenue - it is a tax.

They do that so the codified taxes -- the Johnstown and the sales taxes -- pretty much remain the same. And as we've pointed out many times, they have a police-enforced monopoly and their own pet judiciary system that allows them to do pretty much whatever they want anyway.

No matter what they say, this is not a service to the citizens, nor is it a business. Successful businesses do not have record sales and still go further in debt. The PLCB is well over $1 BILLION in the red...and it isn't going down, it is going up. Businesses do not lie to their shareholders (and they keep saying...that's us!) about plans that have no hope in reaching the levels they promise.

Remember all the money bailment was supposed to save: $100 million. And opening more Sunday stores: $22 million! Opening.remodeled/new stores faster: $25 million. Variable pricing: $75 million. That all totals up to an "extra" $222 million, ON TOP of what they were turning in previously. Wow, dolla dolla bills, y'all!

Have any of these things happened?  Maybe bailment? Probably not since after the first time the PLCB didn't have to take out a $110 million loan that money was never seen again.  No increase in capital spending, no increase in pension contributions, no increase in "profit," and no explanation where it might have gone. Uhhhh...gee, guys, what happened to all that extra money?

The only thing that has consistently gone up is how much red ink the PLCB uses. For real businesses, record sales does not equal record debt for too many years in a row, but the PLCB keeps on with lies to the public about how much of a benefit they are. That's right, lies because if you read the underage drinking report, look at alcohol related DUI and fatalities both underage and legal age. Look at consumption which according to the National Institute of Health spirts consumption - the thing the PLCB is directly responsible for - went up 56% in the past 20 years. We're barely in the middle nationwide. Look at binge drinking and we are 43rd best out of 51; dropping eight places in the past four years. Worse than all the surrounding states, worse than all the free states on our borders, worse than most of the entire United States. "Control" isn't really effective. All it is.... is annoying and expensive.

The PLCB does not control anything, they still exist only to provide a jobs program for the people that work at the PLCB. They aren't even good at what they do. At the last reporting -- well over a year ago, since the PLCB not only doesn't have to report these numbers, they make it a point not to -- 81% of the items they "negotiated" lower costs on had ZERO benefit for the consumer. As a betting man, I'll take every dime you have saying that percentage has gone up and they are screwing the citizens even more.

What they supposedly contribute is meaningless when compared to what they owe, the limited selection and poor service compared to other billion dollar stores, the universally bad reputation they have had over 80 years and the outright proven malfeasance of the leadership are just some of the ways you can see what we have to put up with in Pennsylvania compared to free states.

Maybe this has really been the plan since privatization efforts started in earnest. Run things so poorly, manage so ineptly, lead so incompetently and be so financially inadequate that it will cost far more for the state to bail them out to be able to rid ourselves of this outdated jobs program than to keep them. 

Naw...they ain't that smart...are they?

Don't Let Them Fool You

The PLCB just put out their latest Retail Year In Review, patting themselves on the back — again — about how great the State Stores are doing! Yahoo! It's all here! Just don't look too closely at the numbers!

Because if you do look closely, peek under the gloss and sparkles, you can see just how crappy a job they are doing. Let's start with the record sales. Let's see: police controlled monopoly, citizens can't go anywhere else, rising prices, increased population... It would probably take a real marketing genius to have record sales under those conditions. And take a look at those record sales in the hottest market category - American Whiskey: the PLCB's growth there is less than the national average increase in sales. Not just a little less, it is about 30% less. Imagine how much more in taxes would be collected if Pennsylvania was able to match the strongest national trend in booze sales for just that one category.

The PLCB is over $1 BILLION in debt

Of course, our old friend Jack Daniel's isn't forgotten; after years of us saying that it isn't a bourbon, the PLCB in their normal bout of incompetency gets it half right. On page 32, table 19 of the report there is Jack Daniel's Gentleman Jack sitting in the number 10 spot for "bourbon." At least they didn't have JD #7 listed 3 times like they did last year (page 30, Table 19). It is hard to say if they left it out because it isn't bourbon or they just screwed the table up.

To prove they are keeping up with the "modern lifestyle," a whole one tenth of one percent (0.11%) of sales came from the Internet, which is really pathetic in this day and age for a retail company. Pathetic is the key word when talking about the PLCB's technology track record. Can you say "wine kiosk"?

Then there is the problem of saying things to make yourself look good, even when the numbers that you provide don't always match up with reality.  For most of us this is called lying, for the PLCB it's called "how we do business." Let's look at those "increased sales".  First we have the sales for 2015-2016 from the Retail Year In Review.  On page 4 it lists total sales of $2,303,405,801. On page 5 it lists sales by month and transaction; it doesn't total them up, but have no fear, I did it for you.

Notice that the total is about $23.5 million different. The PLCB doesn't say why, and apparently we don't deserve an explanation.

The next table is for the year 2016-17. Again, the monthly sales in total don't match the total listed by the PLCB on page 4 of the current Retail Year In Review ($2,443,725,791). Only this time, it is $76.5 million that has disappeared. Remember, as the owners of this mess this is our money, and I'd like to know where that $76.5 million is.

Here you'll see that the number of transactions was fairly flat, increasing only by 0.91%, while sales dollars went up 3.8%. What this tells us is that the citizens bought 1% more often, but it cost them 3.8% more each time, well above the inflation rate of 2.1%

Retail alcohol is one of the few major sales items where the individual product is elastic (in economic terms, this means that a small change in price can mean a large change in sales), because there are so many suitable substitutes. If your favorite vodka goes up, you can easily find another at a price you are more comfortable paying. The industry as a whole, though, is inelastic, meaning that people are going to pay for some form of the product no matter what the price changes to. The PLCB knows this (probably because they hired somebody to explain it to them), so they will increase prices and not have it affect overall sales that much, if at all. They are doing that right now, through the old variable pricing trick they foisted upon the public (and the gullible Legislature).

So now that you have real numbers in front of you, you have to ask where the PLCB came up with an "average statewide increase of 6.10%", when the numbers they give us don't match? What numbers are we supposed to believe Table 4 or Table 5? And why should be believe anything the PLCB tells us, given their history of anti-consumer behavior, their predisposition to screwing us? Why aren't they capable of making the sales numbers match on their own damn report? As far as that goes, why, in this age of almost instant information access does it take them six months to put this report out? Find another $2 billion business that takes that long...go ahead, I'll wait.

Face it, the PLCB does NOTHING for the citizens except cost them more in the long run. Remember: they are a BILLION dollars in debt and it isn't getting any smaller.

Privatize.

PLCB Math

So here we are, about to be screwed again by the PLCB. What is it this time? More nepotism? More corruption? No, this time it's just plain monopoly gorilla tactics (yeah, gorilla, not guerrilla). They wanted to force a private business to lower their margin so the PLCB could raise theirs.

Once again, they're just playing at being a business. A real business increases profits when it reduces costs through innovation or consolidation, they change benefits, they leverage productivity, they control operating costs. The PLCB does none of that; well or even at all.

For every dollar the PLCB spends buying booze, they make just over $1.45 selling it. (PLCB Financial Report 2015-16), but that isn't enough apparently. How can that be? Back in 2013 when Bailment was put in place -- that "nifty little system" that was going to make such a big difference -- the PLCB saved enough to no longer need a tax and interest free loan of $110 million from the state to start up their operation every year.  So where did that $110 million saved per year for the past 4 years go?  It isn't zero sum as some PLCB supporters suggest. 

For instance, if you start the year in debt by $100 million, and over the course of the year you make $500 million, your net is $400 million for the year. If you have no debt to begin with, then your net is the full $500 million. The PLCB no longer has that debt every year and so should be making $110 million more every year. Are they? Not according to their own financial reports.

In 2012, the PLCB contribution to the general fund was $80 million. In 2014, with bailment in full swing...it was $80 million. Maybe they spent it on improving the stores? Nope, store operations only went up $25 million over the two year period - still missing over $195 million. ($110 million times 2 years minus $25 million) Maybe they paid down some of the non-reported (at the time) pension debt. Hard to say, but if they did then they didn't continue it in 2015-16 when they had to report pension debt. That only went down just over half a million on almost $240 million of debt - a 400+ year payback plan.

Now we have "flexible pricing," which is of course all about "our need inside this building." Since none of the top 10 sellers of wine or spirits went down in price (except pints of Nikolai Vodka, which decreased a whopping 30 cents, and let's not talk about what a whopping display of hypocrisy it is for the PA Liquor Control Board to lower the price on The Drunkard's Friend), one can only assume that the PLCB kept all the negotiated differences of the most popular items. Now the question arises: how much more do they have to squeeze us by the balls to make the projected income increase of $165 million (or $137 million, depending on who you believe)? Raising the prices on 424 items isn't going to do that. Keeping all the $2.1 million in Jack Daniel's profit — as I'm sure they are doing or anticipating doing — still leaves a long way to go. 

By the PLCB's own admission of saving $110 million a year from bailment, and $165 million from price gouging the consumer, my math says that even with paying $195 million to the general fund, the pension debt should decrease by at least $50 million, and if you count that $110 million from the 4 previous years, there shouldn't be any pension debt.

Of course, that would assume the PLCB is an efficient, well run business organization with knowledgeable leadership and people who take initiative. None of which is true. It is a political pig sty stocked with innumerable incompetents that have no real business experience and run like a old boys club, hoovering up the hard-earned dollars of the citizens while giving almost nothing worthwhile in return.

So much for the Chairman's statement of:"...we can both generate additional revenue and achieve more competitive retail prices through cost reductions, rather than broad price increases." As a businessman, let me clue you in, Tim. You NEVER achieve more competitive prices by raising the price for consumers. The idea is to gain competitive advantage over other places selling the same or suitable substitute items. I'm betting you don't have a friggin' clue what that means.

Speaking of the Chairman, he was so proud saying that the PLCB didn't initiate any price increases during the period of 02/14 to 10/16. Well, guess what? They don't have to. ANY price increase gives the PLCB more money no matter who initiates it. I bet the suppliers never initiated 424 price increases all at once, though, did they, Tim? If you listen to the fearmongers at the UFCW and their lapdog bureaucrats in Harrisburg, we are told that there are 20,000 products available from the PLCB!! Yet Ol' Chairman Timmy is complaining that suppliers tried to increase prices on about 4% of them over two and a half years! Da noive o' dose guys!

You gotta ask why the $110 million from bailment PLUS the $137-165 million from screwing the public with "variable pricing" PLUS the $80-100 million or so they have been contributing the last 7 years or so doesn't total up to at least $337 Million being turned into the state ABOVE the taxes collected. Just what black hole of incompetence is it disappearing into? The answer is that it is all a lie. While they might make something more than before, the state, the General Fund, we the citizens are never going to see it. The PLCB needs it to keep their ship of mismanagement and incompetence afloat. They always have said that the PLCB will make more, not that the state or the consumer or the citizens would ever benefit from it.

It's OUR money; not yours.

What we need now is another border bleed study next year to see what damage has been done by these idiots. My money is that real border bleed is over $500 million by then, if it isn't there already.

Now more than ever we need to be rid of the PLCB.

Privatize, now.

The numbers don't lie...but somebody is

In the House Appropriations Budget Meeting for the PLCB held earlier this month, the PLCB leadership said that they would have to dip into reserves to meet the Governor's anticipated request for $185 million. Why is that, if "modernization" is going to be the windfall that the Governor (and clerks' union president Wendell W. Young IV) says it is? Are their arguments that facile?

The Governor said in his "Budget In Brief" of 02/07/17 (pg.15) that through modernization ..."an additional $137 million in LCB revenues will be generated." The PLCB didn't correct or disagree with that number. So let's see what doesn't add up. If their income for FY 2015-16 — after paying for the BLCE, but before the General Fund Transfer — was $103,856,933 (which it was, according to their financial report), then a $137 million increase would take it to just over $240 million. But if the PLCB has to dip into reserves to pay $185 million, that has to mean that their so-called "profit" is less than $185 million.

OH NO!  42 million of my friends are missing!

However, during that same budget meeting — in sworn testimony — the PLCB said that even with record sales again, they would only make about $90 million for FY 17-18. That $90 million and $137 million "modernization bonus" take it to $227 million in total. That's $42 million more than the $185 million they said they could pay IF they dipped into reserves. So where is this $42+ million going? If they make the $90 million they project, and the $137 million additional that they didn't object to, then turning in $185 million to the General Fund should be no problem. Remember that these numbers are what the PLCB calls "profit," so everything (except the $238 million in pension debt...but that's another story) is already covered.

We have to ask: why after all the "modernization" is in place does the PLCB think they are actually going to make LESS than they did in FY 15-16?

Could it be that "modernization" is a sham, and that it isn't going to bring $137 million, or $100 million, or even $80 million? Is being off by well over 60% how the Governor and the PLCB do estimates? How big a failure is this going to be? The MINIMUM $42 million off would push this well beyond wine kiosk failure, or the 66% computer cost overrun, or selling house brands or anything I can think of. This would be a failure the size of the 82 year lie that the State Stores would be convenient to the public. They got what they wanted, "flexible pricing" and all, so show us the modernization money, PLCB!

Do the math and decide: are they just stupid? Or is the PLCB deliberately misrepresenting how much money they will bring in for the Commonwealth?

Why the PLCB will never be anything but 2nd class

Business, not some funny-money state-owned monopoly business but real business, is driven by being able to supply consumer wants and needs before your competition. Being first to market with innovative marketing and products, seeing a demand and then filling it before somebody else does. That's how business succeeds.

Here in Pennsylvania, we get none of that from the PLCB; we get wine kiosks. They were innovative only in the sense that some bizzaro administrator convinced a board of political donor lawyers with no business acumen, that people really want to blow into a tube and pirouette in front of a camera just to get a bottle of Barefoot. Lesson learned: not all innovation is good.

The PLCB, by its very nature, can only follow. The board, with no experience in the industry, follows the recommendations of the PLCB directors...who in turn also have no real experience in the industry. It's a classic case of the blind leading the blind.

Buy more Baaaaaarefoot!

They can't lead on new trends, because nobody has told them what those trends are yet. They have to be offered products; they do not have the ability or knowledge to search out new things. Even once they are told, there are months of delay while products are submitted and maybe (or maybe not) approved. Does that sound like striving to fulfill consumer wants? Or being a sheep and following the herd?

The PLCB got an award from the control state "business association" (it is to laugh!) this year for being the second first place awardee for the licensee online order system; somebody beat them to it last year. Since there are only seventeen control states left to choose from, and the PLCB got skunked on every major award last year, well, it was their turn this year. But it isn't innovation when you're doing something after it has already been done.

The PLCB only has one goal; to keep the PLCB open. That's what "flexible pricing" is all about. It will allow the agency to keep the lion's share of any price reduction from producers, just to keep its bloated carcass afloat, and "prove" it is good for the state; a "cash cow" as the defenders say. In real business, cost reduction is usually applied to the item for sale to gain an advantage over competitors. No reason to do that here, because in Pennsylvania, there are no competitors. The PLCB says they won't take advantage of this but since there is NO oversight, NO required item reporting, and NO indication to the consumer in the board minutes...How will we know? Wait a year and see that the gross margin went up from 45.46% to 50% or 55%, and realize that every point of that came out of our pockets? What recourse does that give us?

A monopoly with no competition, no need to advertise, with a workforce over 40% part time, and it can't survive on a 45% markup? Walmart's gross margin is 38.2% and Target is 36.1% and they seem to make money just fine. And they have to compete not only with each other but with all the other stores out there. Sounds like the American way of shopping: multiple retailers offering the consumer a choice, trying to get their business by offering lower prices or added value or both. Does that even remotely sound like the State Store System?

Remember: the only way the State Stores can make that extra $50-70 million is if they take it from your pockets, by raising prices, and by not giving you what every other real business does — a choice.

When something doesn't work, or work that well, you replace it.  Pretty simple, really.

Privatize.

PLCB financials 2016. How'd I do?

In a surprise move showing more competence than....well...then they ever have before, the PLCB released its unaudited financials only 60 days after the end of the fiscal year. Sure beats the 122 days it took last year. I don't know if this is a trend or perhaps an outlier. (It's probably got something to do with no privatization bills currently under consideration in the Legislature. -- Lew)

As always they sent out a press release saying how great it was that a police-enforced monopoly that doesn't allow any competition, with a rising population and increasing prices, had record sales. I always like it when they claim how much they "return" to communities. Communities that would get the fees on their terms and their schedule if the PLCB wasn't mandated to act as the middle man.

And of course the big self-congratulations: "Hey, we collected taxes and turned it in!" Just like thousands of businesses do every year, only they DON'T send out press releases saying LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME!!

Speaking of press releases, this one said to go to www.lcb.state.us to see the unaudited numbers.  You had to look hard because the link did't take you there! It wasn't found under the financials tab or in annual reports, but in the board meeting minutes. To their credit, they did move it to an easier place to find it when I mentioned it to them. Now if I could only get them to spell Jack Daniel's right...

So what did this really tell us, minus the hype? The big thing I got out of it was that total liabilities went up over $105 million in one jump and for all the crowing about record sales, the $238.7 million they were in the hole last year only went down by about $550,000. That's right: $550 thousand. Chicken feed. And inventory went up 9.4% again, even though the marvelous bailment was supposed to reduce it! It has gone up $70 million in four years, and if it jumps that much again next year, it will be higher than it was before bailment.

Well, how did I do on the predictions?  Let's see.

1. The normal amount of squawking about "record sales and profits" when that isn't going to happen. Collecting taxes is not making a profit even in PLCB Bizarro business world. Of course with a police enforced monopoly, rising prices, and more citizens,  why wouldn't there be record sales? A private system would generate even more sales.
This was really a gimme because we all know they were going to do that. Nailed it!

2. "Record amounts of taxes collected" will be big in PLCB world, but again, with a police-enforced monopoly, rising prices, and more citizens why wouldn't there be?
Again, who are they trying to impress?

3. I predict that "Net Operating Income" will decrease for the third year in a row, even with "record sales."
OK, I'm eating crow on this one.  Surprisingly it went up about 19%.

4. Prediction: "Store, Warehouse, and Transportation Costs" have gone up for the last few years, albeit only 3% last year but I think it will be 5% this year.
 Well....it didn't go up 5%, it went up 8.9%!

5. "Administrative, Alcohol Education, and Support Costs went up over 29% last year and 9% the year before. They will go up again by 8-10% this year.
Of course, the PLCB didn't group these together this year, so I can't compare apples to apples. But Alcohol Education did go up, so even if the others stayed the same, the total went up. I wonder if the education budget is higher then the advertising budget this year? They don't list that, so one never knows. Education is what they should be doing anyway, so after cutting it so much last year, it is good to see it up again.
 
6. The PLCB finished out last year almost $240,000,000 in the hole. I don't think that is going to change too much so I'll say a slight increase in that number for this fiscal year.
The total change was a whopping $550K. Just what are they doing with these "record sales" anyway?

7. Not really a prediction but an observation. PLCB "profit" return to the General Fund will be less than it was in FY2008 - which has been true for every year since then. Just where does all that record sales money go?
Nailed this one too. 8 years of "record sales" and they still haven't matched 2008.

There you have it for another two months, until the "official" numbers come out and I probe a bit more in depth. What this is really telling you is that take away the taxes, the entire PLCB contribution is 3/10ths of 1% of the budget. What it doesn't tell you is that they are a drag on the economy; always have been, always will be.

Fix that. Privatize.

Another year, another set of predictions

Last year was a pretty good year for PLCB prognostication. I hit most of my predictions. Just shows that if you have no faith in the State Store System, they won't let you down. So what, if anything, has changed this year? 

1. The normal amount of squawking about "record sales and profits" when that isn't going to happen. Collecting taxes is not making a profit even in PLCB Bizarro business world. Of course with a police enforced monopoly, rising prices, and more citizens why wouldn't there be record sales?  A private system would generate even more sales.

2. "Record amounts of taxes collected" will be big in PLCB world, but again, with a police enforced monopoly, rising prices and more citizens why wouldn't there be?

3. I predict that "Net Operating Income" will decrease for the third year in a row, even with "record sales"

4. Prediction: "Store, Warehouse, and Transportation Costs" have gone up for the last few years albeit only 3% last year but I think it will be 5% this year.

5. "Administrative, Alcohol Education, and Support Costs went up over 29% last year and 9% the year before. They will go up again by 8-10% this year.

6. The PLCB finished out last year almost $240,000,000 in the hole. I don't think that is going to change too much so I'll say a slight increase in that number for this fiscal year.

7. Not really a prediction but an observation.  PLCB "profit" return to the General Fund will be less than it was in FY2008 - which has been true for every year since then. Just where does all that record sales money go?

So there you have it. Will we have to wait for 122 days for a computerized accounting system to spit out unverified numbers like last year? Or will the PLCB figure out what button to push before then?  Will I be eating crow or steak?  I'm getting sorta used to steak.

How deep is the hole this year?

Today is day 7 of the countdown.

PLCB 2015 Financials - Trying to make the best of a bad situation

Accountants speak their own language. I don't mean like from a foreign country: from a different planet altogether. They make money appear and disappear based on perceived changes in procedures, making it extremely difficult for the average person to figure out what the heck they are looking at when going over financial statements.

That's by way of presenting the PLCB's long-awaited Financial Statement for FY2014-15. Apparently they just couldn't delay it any longer (one little upside to the ridiculous delay in the state budget process). Instead, they resorted to Accountantese to make it hard to figure out just what happened. Not only have they changed some of the layout of their statements, they changed some of the wording for the exact same line or item in the current report and between last year and this year.

A quick example of how the same thing is called different names is on page 4 of the report: the difference between Sales Net of Taxes (gross sales) and Cost Of Goods Sold (COGS) is called "Gross Revenue from Sales." On page 5, the exact same number is now "Gross Income from Sales." A minor point, but why?

The big change this year is that because of new state accounting rules, the PLCB finally had to list pension obligations. While that causes comparison problems of its own (since they don't include last year's numbers so you can see any changes), it does show that without paying off pension debt at a much greater rate, the PLCB will be in the hole for years to come (as we've been saying all along).

It would have been nice to see if the overall debt went down for this fiscal year compared to last but those figures aren't provided.  However, there have been numerous sources that have stated that overall pension debt went up last year without actually providing any numbers to back it up. My belief is that pension debt did go up, but we'll have to wait and see next year's numbers to find out if it really did continue to increase over this fiscal year too.

Medical Liability went up from $63.63 million to $76.65 million from last year or about 20.5%  and Workers Comp increased an astounding 62% from $25.9 to $42.1 million. So including all of that the PLCB now admits to being "only" $240 million in the hole from being $77 million to the good last year. Just so you understand: that is $77 million from last year plus whatever they thought they made this year (about $80 million) and they are still $240 million down.

I'm going to look at how the stores did overall --  not how investments or deferred inflows and outflow went or the non-operating costs -- and compare them with last year. Without further ado, here we go. (Remember, you can follow along with their report here.)

Sales: Sales went up 4.2% while COGS only went up 4.1% and the effective markup moved up slightly to 45.35% from 45.2%.  No big surprise there: the population went up, prices went up, and the economy is getting better. The surprise would be if sales hadn't gone up; it's a monopoly, after all.

Operating Expenses: Now we come to the heart of the matter: how efficient is the PLCB in turning all those sales into what they call "profit" (what I call an unspent use tax). These numbers DO NOT include Pension, OPEB, and Workers' Compensation Accounting Valuation Expenses from Net Income. It isn't pretty.

• Purchase, Storage & Transportation costs up 13.6% 
• Stores' Operation and Supervision costs up 17.4% 
• Central Administrative Support costs up 11.2%.
• Gross Operating Income down 24.6% 
• Net Operating Income down 32.4%
• Operating Margin down 38% 

All this even though the total number of stores and employees were about the same and this is with record sales!

A real business grows profit by doing one or all of these three things;

• Increasing sales by taking them away from their competitors, which will never happen under the current system. Border bleed is not going to decrease - period. 
• Becoming more efficient and controlling costs, which means not having Operating Costs increase 17% in one year. Also not likely. 
• Becoming more innovative...and we all know what happens when the PLCB tries that: wine kiosks, cost overruns, and trailers full of boiling wine. 

Increasing sales are good, but not when costs increase at a much faster rate. That's just not good business...but we are talking about the PLCB, which is not a business. It's a government agency.

Any honest accountant would despair. Maybe the PLCB's accountants do.

To be fair: the PLCB did increase funding to the Keystone Kops of Booze, the BLCE, by 3.1%. However, to make up for that, they decreased Drug and Alcohol education funding by 48%. Peter, meet Paul; here's his money.

There are some unanswered questions in the report, such as why inventory totals went up over 11% when the much-heralded bailment was supposed to reduce those costs. It went up last year too, and the year before that. In fact, it has gone up about 31% over the last 3 years.

This might just be me, but...the valuation of land as listed on the PLCB reports hasn't changed since at least 1999 (which is as far back as I can go), and building valuation, another line item, has been within 1%, up and down, since 2005. A minor but interesting question. I know my land and buildings have changed value over the past 16 years, yours probably did too. You'd think all those amazing offices, conference rooms and "wine tasting lounge" would increase the value of at least one headquarters property, right?

I realize that these are unaudited numbers, but they aren't going to change that much (if at all), if and when an audit is done, so what you see is what you get. Another year with record sales and another year of lower Operating Income. The real question is how long can this trend go on before it isn't sustainable: how deep will the hole be next year?

Hey PLCB - you down there?

Three months and no financials?

It's over three months after their fiscal year ended, and the PLCB has still not managed to figure out how to report their financials. By comparison, the Department Of Revenue, an agency more than ten times the size with millions of accounts has somehow managed to get an unaudited year end totals  out which is all we are asking for. And they did it the day after the fiscal year ended!

I think I know what the problem might be and offer this suggestion.

BRIBES are an expense.

However, KICKBACKS are an asset.

There. That should help speed things along. No charge for the service.

Show me the money!

Bailment was supposed to be this great golden road to increasing the profitability of the PLCB. I'm not seeing it.

If you don't know, bailment is the term used by the PLCB where a product is shipped to and accepted by the PLCB's warehouse, but the ownership of the product doesn't transfer from the supplier to the wholesaler (the PLCB) until that product is actually ordered by a retailer (the PLCB again). It is used to save the wholesaler money because they are not responsible for maintaining inventory, the supplier is. The claim is that bailment reduced costs enough that the PLCB didn't have to borrow $110 million (interest free) from the General Fund to kick start their fiscal year, as they have in the past. Is that what's actually happened? 

It's pretty simple to check: if you don't have to borrow and pay back $110 million, you should have $110 million more to spend or save or invest at the end of the year. So where is it? 

We know it isn't being spent on inventory, since 85% of volume is in bailment, according to testimony given just last week by the Board. And we know that the amount turned into the General Fund hasn't increased by $110 million. It was $80 million in 2008 and it was $80 million in 2014. And we know that "Operating Income" hasn't increased by $110 million.

So where did that $110 million go? Operating income was $130 million in FY 2008 and only $17 million more (13%) in FY 2014 (even though gross sales were up 26% in the same time period, meaning 'profits' dropped significantly...but that's for another post). Operating expenses didn't eat it up either, the $64 million increase wouldn't account for it even if Gross Revenue didn't increase at all, which it did by $82 million. Net assets were $77 million in FY 2014 and $105 million in FY 2008 so it isn't squirreled away in assets either.

So I'm asking. Assume I'm a member of the public, your boss, supposedly — explain to me just where that $110 million went exactly? I won't think any worse of you if you say you just blew it on tasting rooms and such — it would be hard to think worse of you, honestly — but where'd the $110 million disappear to? Show me the money!

Well, the PLCB released some numbers - so how did I do?

A few days after I asked why the PLCB couldn't publish any financial numbers in a reasonable time, the House Liquor Control Committee got some numbers from the PLCB that tried to make themselves look good. If you watch the video, you'll see it didn't work. Here are a few facts and figures. This isn't the same amount of information that it took them over 2 months to release last year, but it is a start and enough to check the predictions I made. Let's see how I did, comparing the actual quotes from my post of July 31 to what came out at the meeting.

The PLCB spin is making me dizzy

1. Prediction: "The PLCB had record sales again. No surprise there with a police enforced monopoly, a growing population and things costing more over time: what else would you expect?"

1. Reality: Hit this one right on the head. 

2. Prediction: "There should be some crowing about record amounts of taxes turned in, but how is that a surprise when sales go up? Tax payments are done by tens of thousands of businesses, but the PLCB is the only one that puts out a press release saying that they did their job. Congratulations, guys."

2. Reality. Yep, they are crowing about it, but things are a bit confused. The PLCB cited various "modernization" efforts, including increased Sunday store hours. Except there weren't any increased Sunday store hours. That particular change is controlled by the legislature, and they didn't vote to increase any Sunday hours. Is the PLCB doing it illegally?

3. Prediction: "The PLCB will not have record Net Operating Income or what they call "profits." It went down last year and I'm betting it will go down again this year. You gotta wonder how they can have record sales all the time, but rarely record profits (or 'unwasted use tax', as I like to call it)."

3. Reality: While no PLCB financial sheet lists "net income," we can figure it out; it came to $121.2 million in FY 2014, which went down to $117 million this year. Damn, right again. Record sales and making less money: it's the PLCB way!

4. Prediction: "Store, Warehouse, and Transportation Costs went up 8% last year and I say they will be up by at least the same amount this year."

4. Reality: Well, they did go up, from $327 to $338 million, but that is not the 8% I predicted, it's only 3% . Can't win 'em all.

5. Prediction: "Administrative, Alcohol Education, and Support Costs went up 9% last year and they will go up again by 8-10%. Don't even think that was because of the education part, since the total was even more in 2011. Went down after Rep. Turzai started pointing it out and then went back up to what it was. It's going to go up again."

5. Reality: In a rebound with a slam dunk! Administrative, Alcohol Education, and Support Costs went up an astounding 29.4% from $62.6 to 81 Million.

So there you have it.  We'll have to wait and see how well my prognostication did whenever the PLCB can figure out how to work those computers. For now, I'm going to say that I did pretty damn well with 4 out of 5.

The  bottom line is that the PLCB took more of the citizen's money and gave less in return for the second year in a row, and for the fourth year in a row did not increase the amount turned in to the general fund, even though all those years had record sales. I know that this number is a request by the Governor, but it is AFTER MEETING WITH THE PLCB, when he knows how much they have.

Time to kill this dinosaur.

END IT, DON'T MEND IT.