How much did they steal from you this year?

It's that (belated) time of year, time for the PLCB to tell us what a wonderful job they are doing and what a swell place to work they have. Their Annual Report is out (you can download the PDF document here), and the truth is in there; we just have to root it out. 

We say it's "that time of year," but it's not, actually, because the annual report took a ludicrous four months to come out...again. Last time it took four months they said, "Ohh, there were special considerations with the new tax code." No new tax code this year, and they didn't bother with a new excuse. What's the point: it's all lies anyway.

Onward! Right on page 2 there's a mission statement (emphasis added):

The mission of the Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board is to responsibly sell wine and spirits as a retailer and wholesaler, regulate Pennsylvania’s alcohol industry, promote alcohol education and social responsibility and maximize financial returns for the benefit of all Pennsylvanians.

Funny how the part about maximizing revenue isn't in the liquor code. Just as well, since based on the available statistics they aren't doing a very good job on the stuff that is, like alcohol education or social responsibility; at least, not compared to states on our border. Their own report on these outcomes shows that students who consumed alcohol in the past year went up from 81.4% to 83%  After 85 years of the PLCB, 85 years of CONTROL FAILURE...maybe it is time to try a different system. Any normal business wouldn't survive 85 years of failure.

What have they done to us lately? After record sales (and record variably-priced screwing us) PLCB liabilities went down $2.03 million on over $1.1 billion dollars of debt. A payback rate of over 500 years, and getting worse. It was "only" 400 years previously. For some reason they don't report that number. Another interesting part of their financial reporting is that they say, on five pages in a row, that "The accompanying notes are an integral part of these statements." And then don't list what any of the accompanying notes are. They aren't going to verify what they are saying; just believe them, because they have such a great track record of telling the truth.

Another thing they don't tell us is that while variable pricing was supposed to be a partnership where the public was supposed to receive some benefit, we don't know what the benefit is in dollar terms. We can look at past financial statements and see that the PLCB is making almost double what it used to. That's almost all because of lower acquisition costs, but where is the share that the public was supposed to get?  We may have seen a 2% reduction in prices, and even that might be high. For every extra $100 they make, we are probably lucky to see a $2 reduction, spread across a number of products. Even then the PLCB still screws us, because of their rounding formula. Rounding is not considered part of "mark-up," so they can hide that from us, just like they hid what the mark-ups actually are now.

It all goes back to the total lack of leadership and experience of those at the top. They are never held responsible for the lack of progress under their leadership, so the status quo, or even a slip in the status quo, is the norm. On the business side it is even worse. I can understand hiring political hacks if you don't want things to improve in a structured order. But when you've got a failed congressman, a political chief of staff, and a furniture company exec it doesn't seem to be the path to a successful liquor business. In 85 years there hasn't been a Yuengling or Jacquin's executive, or someone from a wine wholesaler or spirits importer, who was qualified and wanted to do the job...really?

When you think about this, keep in mind this quote from the Joint session of the House Liquor Control Committee and the Senate Law & Justice Committee of 2017 (adjusted a bit for truth):

SENATOR MCILHINNEY (former Chairman Senate L&J Committee, since retired): "... the state citizens own this system, and they should be able to get some...benefit by having a good  deal when they go to the liquor store."

MR. HOLDEN (Chairman: Liquor Control Board) : "Absolutely Absolutely not."

There, I fixed it for you, Tim.

Don't Let Them Fool You

The PLCB just put out their latest Retail Year In Review, patting themselves on the back — again — about how great the State Stores are doing! Yahoo! It's all here! Just don't look too closely at the numbers!

Because if you do look closely, peek under the gloss and sparkles, you can see just how crappy a job they are doing. Let's start with the record sales. Let's see: police controlled monopoly, citizens can't go anywhere else, rising prices, increased population... It would probably take a real marketing genius to have record sales under those conditions. And take a look at those record sales in the hottest market category - American Whiskey: the PLCB's growth there is less than the national average increase in sales. Not just a little less, it is about 30% less. Imagine how much more in taxes would be collected if Pennsylvania was able to match the strongest national trend in booze sales for just that one category.

The PLCB is over $1 BILLION in debt

Of course, our old friend Jack Daniel's isn't forgotten; after years of us saying that it isn't a bourbon, the PLCB in their normal bout of incompetency gets it half right. On page 32, table 19 of the report there is Jack Daniel's Gentleman Jack sitting in the number 10 spot for "bourbon." At least they didn't have JD #7 listed 3 times like they did last year (page 30, Table 19). It is hard to say if they left it out because it isn't bourbon or they just screwed the table up.

To prove they are keeping up with the "modern lifestyle," a whole one tenth of one percent (0.11%) of sales came from the Internet, which is really pathetic in this day and age for a retail company. Pathetic is the key word when talking about the PLCB's technology track record. Can you say "wine kiosk"?

Then there is the problem of saying things to make yourself look good, even when the numbers that you provide don't always match up with reality.  For most of us this is called lying, for the PLCB it's called "how we do business." Let's look at those "increased sales".  First we have the sales for 2015-2016 from the Retail Year In Review.  On page 4 it lists total sales of $2,303,405,801. On page 5 it lists sales by month and transaction; it doesn't total them up, but have no fear, I did it for you.

Notice that the total is about $23.5 million different. The PLCB doesn't say why, and apparently we don't deserve an explanation.

The next table is for the year 2016-17. Again, the monthly sales in total don't match the total listed by the PLCB on page 4 of the current Retail Year In Review ($2,443,725,791). Only this time, it is $76.5 million that has disappeared. Remember, as the owners of this mess this is our money, and I'd like to know where that $76.5 million is.

Here you'll see that the number of transactions was fairly flat, increasing only by 0.91%, while sales dollars went up 3.8%. What this tells us is that the citizens bought 1% more often, but it cost them 3.8% more each time, well above the inflation rate of 2.1%

Retail alcohol is one of the few major sales items where the individual product is elastic (in economic terms, this means that a small change in price can mean a large change in sales), because there are so many suitable substitutes. If your favorite vodka goes up, you can easily find another at a price you are more comfortable paying. The industry as a whole, though, is inelastic, meaning that people are going to pay for some form of the product no matter what the price changes to. The PLCB knows this (probably because they hired somebody to explain it to them), so they will increase prices and not have it affect overall sales that much, if at all. They are doing that right now, through the old variable pricing trick they foisted upon the public (and the gullible Legislature).

So now that you have real numbers in front of you, you have to ask where the PLCB came up with an "average statewide increase of 6.10%", when the numbers they give us don't match? What numbers are we supposed to believe Table 4 or Table 5? And why should be believe anything the PLCB tells us, given their history of anti-consumer behavior, their predisposition to screwing us? Why aren't they capable of making the sales numbers match on their own damn report? As far as that goes, why, in this age of almost instant information access does it take them six months to put this report out? Find another $2 billion business that takes that long...go ahead, I'll wait.

Face it, the PLCB does NOTHING for the citizens except cost them more in the long run. Remember: they are a BILLION dollars in debt and it isn't getting any smaller.

Privatize.

A closer look at the PLCB Cash Cow

The PLCB and the UFCW (the State Store clerks' union) have always fed the public (and the Legislature) a big lie about the PLCB Cash Cow. They make it sound like their bulging bovine is comprised of nothing but filet mignon, and shits millions into the General Fund.

What they want you to think

However, the Federal Government doesn't think so and with new accounting rules in effect, the real value of the PLCB is more starkly in focus. Remember a couple years ago, when pension debt was required to be included in the annual report, showing that the incompetents in Harrisburg were really $240 million in debt? Now other benefits besides just pensions have to be taken into account, and it turns out that the PLCB is OVER A BILLION BUCKS IN DEBT. with total liabilities of over $1.7 billion! Yup, billion.  With a 'B.'*

Let me say that again. The agency that has been stealing from the public and short-changing the clerks the benefits it promised (which it could never afford to begin with) for over 80 years, while telling us all that it makes money...is over A BILLION DOLLARS in debt.

Don't believe me?  Why not ask the PLCB themselves? Here's the minutes from their December 6th meeting; take a look at page 9.

The reality of 80 years of lies.

What does it mean? It means that even with stealing more from you with "flexible pricing," even after screwing us with rising prices just because they want to, even after cheating us out of the discounts given by the suppliers, even after purposely working against PA businesses with imported house brands...they still need more...a lot more. The lying political hack they call a Chairman could barely keep a straight face when he told this whopper: "And, as we’ve said all along, prices will increase for some items, when the supplier and PLCB agree that the market can bear the increase." 

Looking at page 10 of the minutes you can see that for October they claim a profit (Change in net position) of $8,623,941. That means that if they didn't do anything else besides pay down debt, it would take ten years just to break even for the debt due today. Of course, they would be accruing more debt, new debt during those same 10 years. This is a Ponzi scheme worthy of Bernie Madoff. No wonder they worked so hard trying to get the Governor's borrowing plan into place. It would further obligate the citizens into paying off their debts and for the next 20 years keep the people who care about limited government and fair treatment for the citizenry at bay.

What does it take to be rid of them? How incompetent do they have to be? How anti-consumer will they get trying to pay off what they owe? You know where this money has to come from, don't you? I got a hint: the wallet of someone you know really, really well.

Can we afford to keep the PLCB's cash cow? Are state stores worth it? 3,500 clerks should not hold hostage a state of 12 million people. Privatize.


(*) Now $1.8 Billion in liabilities for January)

PLCB financials 2016. How'd I do?

In a surprise move showing more competence than....well...then they ever have before, the PLCB released its unaudited financials only 60 days after the end of the fiscal year. Sure beats the 122 days it took last year. I don't know if this is a trend or perhaps an outlier. (It's probably got something to do with no privatization bills currently under consideration in the Legislature. -- Lew)

As always they sent out a press release saying how great it was that a police-enforced monopoly that doesn't allow any competition, with a rising population and increasing prices, had record sales. I always like it when they claim how much they "return" to communities. Communities that would get the fees on their terms and their schedule if the PLCB wasn't mandated to act as the middle man.

And of course the big self-congratulations: "Hey, we collected taxes and turned it in!" Just like thousands of businesses do every year, only they DON'T send out press releases saying LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME!!

Speaking of press releases, this one said to go to www.lcb.state.us to see the unaudited numbers.  You had to look hard because the link did't take you there! It wasn't found under the financials tab or in annual reports, but in the board meeting minutes. To their credit, they did move it to an easier place to find it when I mentioned it to them. Now if I could only get them to spell Jack Daniel's right...

So what did this really tell us, minus the hype? The big thing I got out of it was that total liabilities went up over $105 million in one jump and for all the crowing about record sales, the $238.7 million they were in the hole last year only went down by about $550,000. That's right: $550 thousand. Chicken feed. And inventory went up 9.4% again, even though the marvelous bailment was supposed to reduce it! It has gone up $70 million in four years, and if it jumps that much again next year, it will be higher than it was before bailment.

Well, how did I do on the predictions?  Let's see.

1. The normal amount of squawking about "record sales and profits" when that isn't going to happen. Collecting taxes is not making a profit even in PLCB Bizarro business world. Of course with a police enforced monopoly, rising prices, and more citizens,  why wouldn't there be record sales? A private system would generate even more sales.
This was really a gimme because we all know they were going to do that. Nailed it!

2. "Record amounts of taxes collected" will be big in PLCB world, but again, with a police-enforced monopoly, rising prices, and more citizens why wouldn't there be?
Again, who are they trying to impress?

3. I predict that "Net Operating Income" will decrease for the third year in a row, even with "record sales."
OK, I'm eating crow on this one.  Surprisingly it went up about 19%.

4. Prediction: "Store, Warehouse, and Transportation Costs" have gone up for the last few years, albeit only 3% last year but I think it will be 5% this year.
 Well....it didn't go up 5%, it went up 8.9%!

5. "Administrative, Alcohol Education, and Support Costs went up over 29% last year and 9% the year before. They will go up again by 8-10% this year.
Of course, the PLCB didn't group these together this year, so I can't compare apples to apples. But Alcohol Education did go up, so even if the others stayed the same, the total went up. I wonder if the education budget is higher then the advertising budget this year? They don't list that, so one never knows. Education is what they should be doing anyway, so after cutting it so much last year, it is good to see it up again.
 
6. The PLCB finished out last year almost $240,000,000 in the hole. I don't think that is going to change too much so I'll say a slight increase in that number for this fiscal year.
The total change was a whopping $550K. Just what are they doing with these "record sales" anyway?

7. Not really a prediction but an observation. PLCB "profit" return to the General Fund will be less than it was in FY2008 - which has been true for every year since then. Just where does all that record sales money go?
Nailed this one too. 8 years of "record sales" and they still haven't matched 2008.

There you have it for another two months, until the "official" numbers come out and I probe a bit more in depth. What this is really telling you is that take away the taxes, the entire PLCB contribution is 3/10ths of 1% of the budget. What it doesn't tell you is that they are a drag on the economy; always have been, always will be.

Fix that. Privatize.