Here We Go Again (Except We Haven't Finished the First Time Yet)

Governor Tom "Hack In Training" Wolf presented his new budget proposal yesterday, in the unique position of not having his budget from last year passed yet. That's right; although parts of the budget have passed, arguably the most important parts — education funding and the tax increases Wolf sought to pay for such increases (and for what he said were structural deficits in Pennsylvania's ongoing budget) — have not. The budget for last year is incomplete.

Angry Tough Talking Governor Tom!
(I know, I know, but...at this point, what's the difference?)

Why is this? Wolf, in a questionable display of hopping up and down and spewing campaign-level bile, has blamed it all on the majority party in the General Assembly, Republicans who failed to "compromise." The Republican leaders in the legislature, who don't actually appear to be leading their caucus at all, blame it all on Wolf, who they say failed to "compromise." Both of them seem to think "compromise" means "shut up and do it my way." (Meanwhile, the Democrats in the GA seem to have gotten off scot-free in this, largely because they are irrelevant except when it comes to sustaining Wolf's veto.)

This is an appalling embarrassment, but that's not the problem we need to talk about here. Here we need to talk about liquor normalization. That's the whole point of this blog, after all. So let's figure the odds that we'll get liquor privatization this year. I'm not a pollster, so don't expect accuracy...ha ha ha, jokes like that crack me up!

Cons: First, and always, there will be concerted, well-organized and well-funded opposition from the unions involved. That includes all the money and staffing they contributed to the Wolf campaign, and they expect payback; they've been getting it so far with plenty of hardheaded stonewalling on liquor privatization, and one outright veto. There's a limit to everything, though, and we may find the union's limits this time around. As an angry union guy once told me, we only have to win once. They have to win every time.

Second, the main problem is compromise. Privatization isn't privatization as long as there is a state-owned monopoly on retail or wholesale wine and liquor sales. There are several ways the Legislature might "compromise" on this. The worst would be one of the "modernization" plans. This would, as we've explained many times, be worse than leaving things as they are now, because the keystone of "modernization" is the innocuous-sounding "flexible pricing," which is free rein to raise prices any time they want. That would be a consumer disaster. They could allow wine sales in supermarkets, much like beer sales are today, but that would require jiggering the current law to such an extent that you have to ask: wouldn't it be simpler to just fix this? Then there's the possibility of privatizing retail but not wholesale, or wine sales but not liquor, or some combination of the two. The first means some group of bureaucrats in Harrisburg still decides what booze we're allowed to buy; the second means that liquor buyers are second-class citizens.

Third, it's an election year, and the legislators are going to be skittish. They're going to try real hard to get through to November without doing anything major. Which is, of course, exactly what they've done for the past year. I think it would be a good idea to press the Legislature to present the Governor with a finished budget ahead of time, say in early June, and not waste a bunch of time in the Spring, like the always do. But the timing of an election year makes privatization less likely...even though the chances that a vote on privatization will not have much effect on any legislator's reelection.

Pros: There's still the possibility of a Grand Bargain, a higher-level compromise where Wolf gets what he wants, and the Republicans get pension reform and liquor privatization. Unfortunately, what Wolf wants, mainly, is tax increases, and that's going to be a hard, hard sell...in an election year.

Anything else? Yes, increasing pressure from the public. They've learned a lot about the issues in the past year, and expectations are high. They'll put the pressure on; our job is to help. We'll keep finding the stupidest things the PLCB does and stands for, and feed you the ammunition you need to get the job done.

Budget? Does it really matter what Wolf wants? The important question is what he's prepared to give to get it. Cross your fingers.

The Night Before Budget

'Twas the night before Christmas when all through the House,
Not a creature was stirring, not even an LCB mouse.
[They are closed, you know]

The bills were all stacked on the desks with great care,
In hopes that a budget soon would be there.

The Governor was snuggled all warm in his bed,
With spending and taxes happy dreams in his head.

With Dems in his pocket and no stop gap,
He'd just settled his brain for a short winter’s nap.

Just a friendly sheep here, yup. 

When out in the state arose such a clatter,
He jumped from his bed to see what was the matter.

Away to the window he flew in a flash,
Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow,
Gave a luster of spotlights on The Framework below.

When what to his wondering eyes should appear:
The Republican Caucus, all filled with cheer.

Their majority strong, "No new taxes!" their cry,
More rapid than eagles their proposals did fly.

They whistled and shouted and called out their names:
"Now Liquor, Now Smoking, Now New Instant Games!

On Driller, On Business, On Fracking and more!
On Pensions, On Teachers, School Spending galore!

To the top of the Capitol, the top of the wall,
Now vote on them! vote on them! vote on them all!"

And up to the housetop the Caucus they flew,
With a balanced budget and some new spending too.

But then in a twinkling we all heard on the air,
The whining and threats of The Wolf from his lair.

"My budget's holistic, you must understand,
Includes taxes and spending there for everyman.

It’s a bundle of taxes I’ll fling on your back,
(With a promise that later you might get some slack)."

His eyes how they twinkled, his dimples so merry
(His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry),

When he spoke of the taxes all lined in a row,
The beard on his chin just quivered, just so.

But he held his spending plan tight to his breast —
Special interests to pay back; ignore all the rest.

A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,
Soon gave us to know we had all to dread;

He turned off the mic and went straight to his work;
Headed down to the halls where the lobbyists lurk.

First on his list was the State Liquor Store,
He must keep it open, privatization no more!

He tells us the free market would surely raise prices,
And monopoly's best for this most tasty of vices.

"I won’t give the people what they've wanted for years;
It’s much more important to keep state store cashiers!"

It was a long night, as The Wolf clawed and fought,
And schemed to keep progress remaining at naught.

But I heard him exclaim as he went back to bed,
“Happy Christmas to all. My budget's not dead!”